About bracketology

What is bracketology?

Bracketology is the practice of projecting a postseason field before it is actually set. It was started by Joe Lunardi back in the 90's as a way to predict the participants that would make the NCAA Basketball tournament each year. Back in 2016, I started this process with Alabama high school football and I've done it every year since.

Instead of waiting for the AHSAA to release the official brackets, we take what we know right now — region standings, results so far, and who still has to play whom — and build the bracket based on those factors. It is part math, part opinion, and it changes every week.

How the AHSAA playoff field works

Alabama does not use one big statewide seeding. Every classification is split into regions, and teams qualify out of their own region. Where you finish in your region is the only thing that matters — a 7-3 team can finish ahead of an 8-2 team if their region record is better.

The field is different in each classification:

Class 6A — 4 regions, top 6 from each region qualify (24 teams). The top 2 seeds in each region get a first-round bye straight into the second round. The regions rotate who plays who each year and is not based on geography.
Classes 1A–5A — 8 regions each, top 4 from each region qualify (32 teams). Regions 1-4 are in the south and regions 5-8 are in the north.
Class AA (private) — 2 regions, the whole field qualifies (16 teams). Each region plays itself down to a winner that advances to the championship.
Class A (private) — 4 regions, top 4 from each region qualify (16 teams). Regions 1-2 are in the south and regions 3-4 are in the north.

How to read the bracket

Every team on the bracket carries a seed tag on the left, written like R4-2. That means the second-place team out of Region 4. It is not that team's record. The tag travels with the team as it advances, so you can always see where somebody came from.

A few other things worth knowing:

- An H next to a team means they are the home team for that game.
- A blank slot next to a team means they have a bye — nobody to play that round, and they advance automatically.
- Click any game to see the date, time, location, and both teams’ records. This won't be fully filled in until the bracket and match-ups are set.

Region standings and status colors

The Region Standings tab shows every team in playoff order, with their overall record and their region record. Region record is what actually decides seeding.

Each team also carries a status showing how safe their playoff position is:

Clinched — Mathematically locked into that spot, regardless of what happens next.
High — High confidence that the team will most likely will finish close to where they are now.
Medium — Medium confidence that the team will most likely will finish within a spot or two of where our projections have them.
Low — May be in good position now, but low confidence that they end up in that spot, or even in the playoffs at as things could drastically change with just one or two results.
Out — Eliminated from playoff contention, either mathematically or we just think it's too high of a ladder to climb.

Some notes about the info on this site

– This is all based on a few factors: A) current region record, B) strength of region record to that point, C) non-region record, which is only used for tiebreak purposes, and D) my own opinions and projections. Most teams will be placed based on their region record at that point, but sometimes we may make a change based on our opinion of what we believe will happen in the future. When we do give our opinion or our own projections, we will note that. Some teams start with a harder path than others so they aren't as high as you think they probably should be.

– When it comes to non-region wins and tiebreakers, the most important thing to remember is – the quality of non-region wins means more than the quantity of non-region wins. For instance, Team A with a 1-2 non-region record can be ahead of Team B with a 3-0 non-region record if the one team that Team A beat has more wins than the 3 teams combined that Team B defeated.

– It’s also important to note that a team can’t lose a tiebreaker, only win it. For instance, if three teams beat each other within the season to cause a 3-way tie, and it goes to non-region wins or some other tiebreaker where one team is clearly out of the running to win it, then that doesn’t mean they are out of the running if there are more playoff spots to get. Teams with bad records are rewarded for their region wins just like teams with good records are punished for their region losses.

– There have recently been some different interpretations of wording in the rule book when it comes to tiebreakers between schools and the AHSAA. We can only go off how we interpret the words that are written and past precedent in similar scenarios. We may get something wrong based on our interpretation, and if so – don’t forget that the AHSAA has the final word and whatever they say goes, whether we like it or not.

About the projections

Flip on Show projected results on any bracket to see it filled out the rest of the way. This is based on ratings and projections from a few different sites.

They will be wrong sometimes. That is the nature of it.

A note on accuracy

This is an independent project and is not affiliated with the AHSAA. Brackets here are projections until the AHSAA releases the official pairings. Standings and results are updated by hand, so if you spot something wrong, let us know.