Playoff Odds
The rest of the season, played ten thousand times. Every game still to come is decided by a coin weighted by the two teams’ ratings, the region tables are rebuilt, and the brackets are seeded and played out. A team’s odds are the share of those seasons in which it happened.
| Rgn | Team | Reg W-L | Proj W-L | Playoffs | 1 seed | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 1st Rd | 2nd Rd | Quarters | Semis | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | 1Daphnex | 4-0 | 5.7-0.3 | 100% | 80% | 19% | 1.8% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1.7% | 30% | 15% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| 2Fairhopex | 3-0 | 4.7-1.3 | 100% | 17% | 47% | 31% | 5.1% | <1% | <1% | 30% | 12% | 1.0% | 0.1% | <1% | |
| 3Foleyx | 3-1 | 3.9-2.1 | 100% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 59% | 28% | 5.4% | <1% | 52% | 1.3% | <1% | <1% | <1% | |
| 4Baker | 1-2 | 3.4-2.6 | >99% | <1% | 31% | 6.7% | 58% | 4.6% | 0.2% | 57% | 11% | 1.1% | 0.1% | <1% | |
| 5Robertsdale | 1-2 | 1.9-4.1 | 99% | <1% | <1% | 1.1% | 8.2% | 63% | 27% | 13% | 0.2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | |
| 6Alma Bryant | 0-3 | 0.7-5.3 | 52% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 0.9% | 26% | 25% | 5.1% | 0.1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | |
| 7Davidson | 0-4 | 0.7-5.3 | 49% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 0.9% | 49% | 5.9% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | |
| —Mary Montgomeryi | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| R2 | 1Central-Phenix City | 4-0 | 6.8-0.2 | >99% | 99% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% | <1% | <1% | 0.4% | 99% | 86% | 60% | 21% |
| 2Auburn | 3-1 | 5.9-1.1 | >99% | 1.0% | 99% | 0.5% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 0.1% | 91% | 24% | 2.4% | 0.3% | |
| 3Opelika | 2-2 | 4.4-2.6 | >99% | <1% | 0.1% | 51% | 29% | 16% | 3.8% | 52% | 37% | 7.6% | 1.9% | 0.2% | |
| 4Carver-Montgomery | 3-1 | 4.2-2.8 | >99% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 31% | 48% | 20% | 0.1% | 41% | 27% | 3.3% | 0.7% | <1% | |
| 5Enterprise | 2-2 | 3.5-3.5 | 99.9% | <1% | 0.2% | 17% | 22% | 61% | 0.6% | 32% | 20% | 2.0% | 0.3% | <1% | |
| 6Dothan | 1-3 | 2.0-5.0 | 84% | <1% | <1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 3.9% | 80% | 2.8% | 0.3% | <1% | <1% | <1% | |
| 7JAG | 1-3 | 1.2-5.8 | 16% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 0.2% | 16% | 0.1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | |
| 8Smiths Station | 0-4 | 0.0-7.0 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | |
| R3 | 1Thompsonx | 4-0 | 6.8-0.2 | 100% | 90% | 10% | 0.4% | 0.1% | <1% | <1% | 0.5% | 99% | 94% | 82% | 66% |
| 2Prattvillex | 4-0 | 5.6-1.4 | 100% | 10% | 48% | 42% | 0.5% | <1% | <1% | 41% | 88% | 72% | 22% | 5.1% | |
| 3Vestavia Hills | 3-1 | 5.1-1.9 | >99% | 0.3% | 42% | 44% | 11% | 2.3% | 0.5% | 54% | 86% | 65% | 23% | 6.2% | |
| 4Hewitt-Trussville | 3-1 | 3.6-3.4 | >99% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 8.0% | 39% | 28% | 24% | 48% | 30% | 4.3% | 0.6% | <1% | |
| 5Spain Park | 1-3 | 3.0-4.0 | >99% | <1% | <1% | 0.5% | 26% | 44% | 30% | 67% | 50% | 8.5% | 2.3% | 0.3% | |
| 6Hoover | 1-3 | 2.8-4.2 | 99.9% | <1% | <1% | 5.3% | 24% | 26% | 45% | 61% | 44% | 10% | 2.2% | 0.3% | |
| 7Oak Mountain | 0-4 | 1.0-6.0 | 0.1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 0.1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | |
| 8Tuscaloosa County | 0-4 | 0.0-7.0 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | |
| R4 | 1Sparkmanx | 4-0 | 6.5-0.5 | 100% | 56% | 43% | 0.9% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 0.9% | 32% | 3.9% | 0.6% | <1% |
| 2James Clemensx | 4-0 | 6.3-0.7 | 100% | 44% | 55% | 1.0% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1.0% | 33% | 3.3% | 0.4% | <1% | |
| 3Bob Jones | 2-2 | 3.9-3.1 | 99.8% | <1% | <1% | 31% | 37% | 19% | 13% | 67% | 2.8% | 0.1% | <1% | <1% | |
| 4Gadsden City | 2-2 | 3.8-3.2 | >99% | <1% | <1% | 39% | 30% | 18% | 14% | 76% | 3.9% | 0.3% | <1% | <1% | |
| 5Buckhorn | 2-2 | 3.4-3.6 | 97% | <1% | 0.9% | 12% | 18% | 45% | 22% | 42% | 1.1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | |
| 6Huntsville | 2-2 | 3.0-4.0 | >99% | <1% | 1.0% | 16% | 15% | 19% | 49% | 48% | 1.3% | <1% | <1% | <1% | |
| 7Grissom | 0-4 | 0.7-6.3 | 2.8% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2.8% | 0.1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | |
| 8Hazel Green | 0-4 | 0.4-6.6 | 0.3% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 0.3% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | |
The rule under each region’s 6th team is the playoff line — everyone above it qualifies as the region stands. x clinched, e eliminated; both are proved from the games left to play rather than read off the simulation, so neither can be wrong. i Mary Montgomery is barred from the postseason, so its region games count for neither side — it reads 0-0 and its opponents took an overall result and no region one. The rating is untouched; the football happened. The playoff column is the only one with a wrong side, so it is the only one that turns red: blue above an even chance of qualifying, red below it. Seeds and rounds only shade one way, since no team is on the wrong side of a championship — more blue is a better chance, and a team without one stays blank. Those columns are each shaded against their own best, so the strongest title chance reads as strongly as the strongest shot at a seed. Every figure is a share of ten thousand simulated seasons and carries about half a point of sampling noise.
How these are worked out
There are 573 region games left to play. Each one is simulated from the two teams’ Index ratings and home field, the region tables are rebuilt from the result, and the top 6 in each region are seeded into the bracket. Teams level in a region are separated by the association’s own procedure, (a) through (q): head-to-head first, then records against each ranked team in the region, then non-region common opponents, then how much the teams they beat have won. It settles one place at a time and starts over for whoever is left, which is what the rule says to do. The last step is a coin flip, and since there is no coin here the Index rating stands in for it. The standings page runs the same procedure, so the two cannot disagree about who holds a playoff place.
The one number behind all of it is how often a rating gap turns into a win. That is not guessed — it is fitted against the 2025 season by rating the weeks before each week and predicting that week cold, which picks about four winners in five and whose stated probabilities land within two points of what actually happened at every level of confidence.
A figure reads >99% rather than 100% when every simulated season agreed but the arithmetic has not closed the door — a team can win ten thousand out of ten thousand and still, in principle, play its way out. Only a place that cannot be lost is printed flat.
Odds move only when results do. They are recomputed when the board is published, not on a timer.